Wednesday, May 1, 2013
The Candlestick Course 1st edition, Steve Nison
This candle stick book wont cost you much.. but trying to make money from it certainly will cost you many more times than the price of the book.."
I must say, I read this book about 4 years ago. I was just looking to sell many of my trading books that I don't use and this is one of them.
I really loved this book when I read it, its well explained and has lots of examples you can do.. but years later, and several thousand trades later.. and after backtesting my own systems. I've come to realise one thing. ITS ALMOST A STATISTICAL CERTAINTY THAT NONE OF YOU GUYS APPLYING THIS BOOKS INFORMATION LONG TERM ARE GOING TO MAKE ANY MONEY.
Infact I'd bet against you; that you'd lose money.
Why?
Statistics and numbers!
Ok, before I start, let me say I hold a British Diploma in Technical Analysis (STA) [equivalent to the American MTA]. So I have some background in TA.
There is technical analysis and then there is making money. The two do not necessarily go hand in hand. Now you can certainly use some TA methods to help make money, but most practitioners of TA are analysis's and dont trade their own money, which in my opinion, makes their analysis pointless. Most TA methods are theories without statistics behind them and therefore in my opinion useless.
The book will tell you about doji bars, hangmen and 3 black crow patterns etc. BUT NOWHERE is there any statistics on these claims.
Steve will say 'when you see these candles it means the market should go up..' but with no stats, its a useless comment.
I'd like to see statements like eg over a 20 year period in the Dow Jones index, when this pattern showed up, 65% of the time it proved to be correct and 35% of the time it was incorrect..
There is no information like that whatsoever.
Any more importantly, there is no statistics on what you lose when you are wrong and what you make when you are right. The book makes vague suggestions of where to place stops. But without statistics, its just useless information.
For 6 months I started I tried trading using candle patterns (and other technicals), but I hadnt done my own statistical analysis. I just followed the advise in Steves book (and others) blindly. I didn't make money. Sure it could have been because I was making some mistakes or even not understanding what Id read correctly. But again regardless, in a any science theory, when you make a statement, you must backup up with evidence.. I have long got fed up of 'financial gurus' making wild statements without backup it up with data. Without this evidence, the view might as well be just pure fictional rubbish.
Now lets talk about candles quickly. I DO actually use candle stick charts.. I like them visually because I can see 4 bits of information all at once (Open,Close,Low,High) as well as magnitudes.. but I do NOT use the patterns. The main point of using candlestick charting, according to Steve Nison, is to use the candle patterns. When I look at a candle chart, I've completely forgottern about the patterns now, I pay no attention.. instead I look for other information eg support and resistance, or setups/patterns people like Larry Williams mentions in his books..
Steve Nison is a book seller, and a TA theorist, he is not a trader. His money comes from selling books and DVD's and doing seminars.
If you want to make money, instead of reading this book, I'v suggest you check out these books:
Van Tharps 'Trade your way to financial freedom'
Curtis Faith 'The Way of the Turtle'
Larry Williams 'Short Term Secrets to Long Term trading' (this book is a bit cryptic, but this guy is the real deal)
"This candle stick book wont cost you much.. but trying to make money from applying its principles certainly will cost you many more times than the price of the book.."
Actually I purchased this book at the request of my husband. He has read it and stated on several occasions that it is difficult to understand and not an easy read. That being said, he does like it!! He says he is learing (all be it slowly) but at least he is enjoying it. I looked through the book and it looked like it would be difficult to understand unless you know EXACTLY what they are talking about. There has been a few instances where my husband did not know what the writer was talking about or referring to on some of the grafts. I dont know, for that much money, I want to understand EVERYTHING in the book. In my opinion, the book was entirely too expensive! I wanted to wait for it to come out in paperback, BUT it already is paperback! I guess if you are into the stock market and investing, this book is ok.
The kindle preview of this book shows us: nothing.
Not a single pattern is contained, so I am left with the feeling that the author/publisher is ashamed to show the content? Afraid to ... what, publish a secret?
Many kindle books are hardly usable for their bad grafics. How am I to decide about this?
I won't buy the book under this circumstances. Period.
Mr. Nison is a fountain of knowledge and renowned expert on this topic. He is also a superlative teacher. Some reviewers have commented that this book is a bit simplistic; to which I say, well, I personally can always use a good refresher. One caution for newbies: candlesticks will NOT, in themselves, equip you to trade successfully. As Mr. Nison--much to his credit--consistently points out, candlesticks are best used "in conjunction" with "Western" indicators/moves. Mr. Nison even teaches HOW to use candlesticks with the latter. His experience, attention to detail, and writing/teaching ability inspire confidence and lead directly to real-life, practical results. Candlesticks are just hard to beat as that final piece of validation needed to make a trade. I depend on them, and would say that Mr. Nison does a fantastic job of making them intelligible for everyone.
As far as I know, this is Steve Nison's latest book on candlestick charting. What it does, it does very well indeed. It's the best book for newcomers (especially self-study types) to the subject that I've ever found, and I've checked most of them. In fact, if you're new to technical analysis, you can start here as well. Although there's more to technical analysis than candlestick charting, one has to start somewhere, and once you've mastered the concepts introduced here, the rest will make a lot more sense to you. The problem with most books that claim to be introductory works is that they're really not. You read a few pages, and then all of a sudden the author starts introducing words he or she hasn't defined, or starts talking about subjects that he or she just assumes you know about. Steve Nison doesn't do this. He takes you step by step, and each chapter concludes with review questions and answers, so that you'll be able to move to the next chapter. And you don't have to worry that the author knows what he's talking about. He's the one who introduced the subject of candlestick charting to the Western world.
After you've gone through this book, I would most highly recommend that you follow it up with Tina Logan's "Getting Started in Candlestick Charting." It will reinforce what you learned from Nison's book, and then seamlessly blend in other aspects of technical analysis as the discussion moves forward. When you've finished with both books, you should know as much about the subject as most of the experts. And you'll have a powerful tool to use in your trading. The great thing about the candlestick method is that while it presents the same "raw data" as the conventional bar graph, it also gives you so much more real information about what's going on in the market. It's almost like being able to read the minds of the market participants. Simply stated, it's as far superior to the conventional bar graph as Arabic numerals are to Roman numerals. It's the unity of form and content.
Product Details :
Paperback: 219 pages
Publisher: Wiley; 1st edition (May 23, 2003)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0471227285
ISBN-13: 978-0471227281
Product Dimensions: 7.1 x 0.6 x 9.9 inches
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Quantitative Trading: How to Build Your Own Algorithmic Trading Business 1st edition, Ernie Chan
I was drawn to E.P. Chan's "Quantitative Trading" (2009) by a process of elimination. After losing half of my buy-and-hold retirement portfolio in the 2007-2009 bear market, I tried and rejected a variety of both fundamental and technical trading strategies. Fear and greed invariably blocked my path to success in any of these trading endeavors. Then I discovered momentum trading strategies that could be automated. Trend following strategies, such as, those proposed by Tom Lydon in "The ETF Trend Following Playbook: Profiting from Trends in Bull or Bear Markets with Exchange Traded Funds" (2009), were especially appealing to me. For example, buy when an equity's price moves above its 200 day moving average. Sell when the price falls below its 200 day moving average. What could be simpler than that? Even more appealing, however, were the relative strength, risk adjusted trading strategies that I discovered at the ETF Replay website. There I found a momentum based, quantitative, statistical model that was mechanical in operation and that separated my trading activities from my emotions, keeping fear and greed in check.
Was Chan's book written for traders like me? Not exactly. The author had in mind a reader who wants to know (1) how to start a quantitative trading business or (2) how to work as a quantitative trader at a major institution. I, on the other hand, was simply looking for ways to enhance my skills as an independent trader for managing my personal accounts.
In reading this book, I felt like a minor league player asking for help from a major league coach. Chan is a true quant with both institutional and independent trading experience. Chan offers way more expertise than I can use. For instance, Chan's book applies to trading that can be characterized as algorithmic, mean-reverting, fully automated, intraday, high frequency, leveraged, risk adjusted, and benchmarked with high Sharpe ratios and low drawdowns. My trading, on the other hand, is mechanical, not algorithmic; momentum based, not mean-reverting; semi-automated, not fully automated, monthly traded, not intraday; low frequency, not high frequency; unleveraged, not leveraged; risk adjusted and benchmarked with high Sharpe ratios and low drawdowns -- these last items being significant points of agreement with Chan.
Chan moves his readers step-by-step from determining their aptitude for quantitative trading in Chapter 1 to growing a quantitative trading business in Chapter 8. Along the way, Chan tells his readers how to select a trading strategy, how to backtest their strategy using MATLAB (or Excel), how to build an automated trading system, how to manage their money and risks, and how to refine and improve their trading strategies.
Quantitative trading is known by several other names: "algorithmic trading," "automated trading," "computer trading," and Chan's favorite, "statistical arbitrage trading." Incidentally, for statistical arbitrage trading to work, both Random Walking and the Efficient Market Hypothesis must fail.
Are there prerequisites? To benefit from Chan's book, the reader needs to have at least a first year college proficiency in statistics, algebra, and computer programming. Given this minimal background, the reader can then proceed to become an independent trader who will be able to outperform institutional money managers at their own game, namely, statistical arbitrage trading.
By the time you finish Chan's book, your statistical arbitrage trading kit will include such tools as geometric mean, moving average, standard deviation, linear regression, Gaussian distribution, mean-reverting time series, half-life time series, principal components analysis, Kelly Formula, and Sharpe ratio -- and the means to achieve a consistent monthly stream of revenue.
Very good primer on trading and quant trading. I am a beginner and found it very practical and current.
The book does not provide specific strategies (why would anyone give you their profitable strategies anyway?), but it gives guidance on how to go about creating your own strategies and trading business.
It frequently focuses on Matlab, but I just ignored the technicalities of those sections since I do not currently intend to take that route. It's quite useful, however, to get an idea of how sophisticated your competition is!
Other reviewers complained that the price is steep - this may be the case, but the book is interesting to read, and if you get only one single idea from it, it will surely be worth more that the book's cost.
The author does identify the issues at a high level and does provide a few basic strategies. However the issues are not completely flushed out. Neither at a topical or in depth level.
The technical details are not given enough treatment for a novice to really understand the implications or how to apply them. The reader would benefit from an in depth discussion on the pros and cons of various market theories over the brief treatment by the author.
My biggest issue is focused on the chapter addressing Risk Management. The trick of trading really is understand and reducing your risk. Granted it is a complex topic, but honestly the hard part of any trading strategy is determining how to minimize risk while maximizing profits.
He does a good job at laying out most of the topics at a high level, though you would probably be better served by hitting his website and passing on the book.
The focus of this book is equity and futures, and options are specifically not part of the author's trading toolbox. So the arbitrage of trading pairs is one strategy, and one that small investors should avoid. I am not getting paid, so I am really not going to elaborate, but pairs trading is something best left to big players on Wall Street. But I do agree with the author: small investors can easily beat the institutional players; however, they will need more than this book.
I have mixed feelings about this book, but overall, it was underwhelming. First, it really should be emphasized that this is targeted at beginners. Anyone with even a small amount of portfolio management experience will probably be familiar with the techniques discussed. Second, there is a strong emphasis on leverage and Kelly sizing (although he does suggest scaling back, eg half Kelly). Neither of these two statements are negative by themselves, but the combination seems a little dangerous. The type of person who would benefit from the information he presents probably shouldn't be taking large leveraged bets. Admittedly there are plenty of exceptions to that statement, but I think it holds in general. A good first step? Perhaps. A How-to guide for building a trading business? No way.
There doesn't seem to have been much original research conducted for the purposes of the book. He basically talks about the programs, brokerages, etc. he has used in the past and gives his opinions on a few. This is valuable to some extent, but in a book targeted at starting up a new business, I would have expected him to survey the landscape a little more. Just as an example, his code is in Matlab which he admits is probably outside the price range for many startups. Why not show the code in R? Or one of the cheaper/free Matlab clones he mentions?
There were a few technical areas I thought he breezed over too nonchalantly (assuming strategy return independence in the Kelly formula for example) that could be dangerous, but as the book is targeted at beginners, I won't hit him for those.
As a final point, the book is completely overpriced. Large font + small book + not much more than 150 pages (many of which are either code or modified entries from his blog) = where's the beef? Again, that's OK, but not in the context of a (ridiculous) $60 sticker price. Even the ~$40 at Amazon is about 2x what I believe is justified.
Product Details :
Hardcover: 208 pages
Publisher: Wiley; 1 edition (November 17, 2008)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0470284889
ISBN-13: 978-0470284889
Product Dimensions: 6.3 x 0.8 x 9.2 inches
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Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals 1st edition, David Aronson
In this thought-provoking work, David Aronson tests more than 6,400 technical analysis rules and finds that none of them offer statistically significant returns when applied to trading the S&P 500. This result, presented at the end of his work, is not disappointing to dedicated students of technical analysis who draw from the book not a new trading technique but instead take away a new, and more effective, approach to system development and trading. Those seeking the single best indicator or day trading pattern will be disappointed after reading Evidence-Based Technical Analysis, just as they will be disappointed in their trading until they advance beyond seeking the Holy Grail of Trading.
Most books and articles about technical analysis focus on applying a specific technique in pursuit of success in the markets. This one is different in that it outlines an entirely new process of thinking, and through the application of this new thought process, success can be attained. Part I of Evidence-Based Technical Analysis is called, "Methodological, Psychological, Philosophical, and Statistical Foundations" and Aronson uses this title as an outline to define the processes which should underlie system development.
The scientific method changed the world, and made the advances of modern society possible. Until now, technical analysis has been considered more of an art than a science to many practitioners and escaped the scrutiny of the scientific method. With recent advances in computing power and analysis software, it is now possible for virtually anyone to search through years of data and identify seemingly profitable trading rules. Aronson presents the scientific method, combined with the philosophy of science as explained by Karl Popper, as an antidote to this very real danger.
Well designed experiments in any scientific inquiry are based upon a verifiable hypothesis grounded in detailed observations. Popper contributed the concept of falsification to this framework, which readily lends itself to mechanical trading system design. As Aronson writes, "Popper's central contention was that a scientific inquiry was unable to prove a hypothesis to be true. Rather, science was limited to identifying which hypotheses were false."
In technical analysis, we can never prove that if the NYSE Advance-Decline Line reaches a new high, the Dow Jones Industrial Average will always be higher thirty days later. But, we can test this hypothesis to see if it is not true. This simple example illustrates the beginning of Aronson's scientific approach to the markets.
Many of the dangers of data mining and curve fitting are grounded in psychology, and Aronson thoroughly explains many of the common problems that can contribute to inaccurate observations. Carefully studying his sections on logic and psychology should lead to better market observations, which should lead to profitable systems.
The chapters on statistical analysis are worth more than the price of the book in itself. Aronson presents a clear primer on statistics, and leaves the reader with all they need to understand how to design a statistically valid experiment. In what may very well be a publishing first, he presents clear, detailed and understandable descriptions of bootstrap and Monte Carlo randomization methods.
This book is well-researched and presents actionable ideas to advance the study of technical analysis. Although none of the rules Aronson tested proved to be statistically significant, he helpfully devotes a section to explaining the limitations of his test results. Armed with this information, and the knowledge provided in the rest of the book, the thoughtful analyst can develop better insights into the market and perform better backtests to identify profitable strategies.
David Aronson's Evidence Based Technical Analysis ("EBTA") is a fantastic book, and one which our industry has sorely needed. It is a "How to Do Research" book that details the scientific method with regard to the markets. Everyone in the field should both read the book and practice what it preaches. But that won't happen, which is both bad news and good news. The bad news is that the vast majority of market traders who do not practice what the book preaches will lose money. The good news is that those who do will most certainly prosper. As the numbers of the former outnumber those of the latter, the few will earn a lot from the many.
The long (over 100 pages) psychology "preface" is extremely important to Aronson's body of work. I found it hugely interesting, but fear that others may not, or worse. In fact, the psychology preface itself indicates that this work will be reviled (my words) by the multitude. People do not like their sacred cows criticized.
The problem is that most market practitioners use methods with little or no scientific basis. Even if shown evidence of faulty logic, people continue to believe its validity. This is also true in the medical profession as Aronson illustrated and which scared the daylights out of me.
For anything to be scientifically testable, it must be possible to prove it wrong. However, many of the technical analysis disciplines cannot be defined. Thus they cannot be disproved. Consequently they have no scientific validity. They may have some anecdotal importance, but true science is lacking.
Let us say that one of the market gurus espouses that when the chart of XYZ resembles "Pattern A", the stock is destined to rally. To test that we have to define Pattern A and we have to define "rally", and we should provide some time parameters in which to work or fail. The trouble is that the guru cannot define any of that. But the guru still believes in his work, and all of the investors who pay monthly fees for his expertise believe it also. Anyone who criticizes the guru or the validity of Pattern A is looking to get flamed.
EBTA preaches that technical analysis research should be conducted like quantitative analysis research. Those who treat TA as a casual discipline will get casual results. The book is not an easy read, but it is an easier and much more interesting read than the "bible" of the CFA community, Quantitative Methods for Investment Analysis (DeFusco, et al.). I own both books and certainly consider EBTA more valuable than the CFA manual, worshipped by thousands. Don't expect to download all of Aronson's knowledge the first time - read it again. I did and learned more the second time through.
Aronson is meticulous and provides "service after the sale". I had recently traded emails with him about an article he had cited. He was prompt to respond and discus the implications of our expanded research. I have the feeling that he is like this with everyone.
In conclusion I have to say, that if you cannot do what EBTA preaches, at least get yourself a money manager who does.
Professor Aronson's book is a fascinating read for anyone frustrated with the current state of technical research and a must-read for those new to the field. I believe the Market Technicians Association should include it in its Chartered Market Technician curriculum.
After a few years of studying and using technical analysis, I was left with the distinct feeling that there was an elephant in the room: most of the methods used by market technicians haven't been rigorously examined for risk-adjusted performance. Elaborate and often contradictory theories and strategies have been presented by saying "my personal experience has been..." or something similar. Eventually, TA began to seem more a religious choice rather than a science of observing and predicting the markets (let alone successful investing).
Aronson's book follows a structure that is designed to break through generations of instruction from pontificating gurus. He discusses the reason TA's rules are suspect, provides a brief history of empiricism ("the scientific method") and then delves into descriptive and inductive statistics to move the field forward. Those readers fortunate enough to have an undergraduate background in philosophy and statistics will find the reading somewhat basic but the application of these fields to a critical appraisal of TA refreshing. Finally, he applies his rigorous testing to a large set of TA rules.
Key takeaway: The way to develop and test strategies going forward.
Product Details :
Hardcover: 544 pages
Publisher: Wiley; 1 edition (November 3, 2006)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0470008741
ISBN-13: 978-0470008744
Product Dimensions: 6.3 x 1.6 x 9.1 inches
More Details about Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals 1st edition
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